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Fantasy impact: Terrell Owens joins Bengals
| By David Gonos | about 2 months ago | NFL | | 1 | Comments | |
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The initial surprise and wonderment of Terrell Owens joining VH1 reality show buddy Chad Ochocinco has officially passed. Now, fantasy football owners are asking the obvious question: What does this mean for my team!?!
Let’s dissect a few members of the Bengals offense to see how this news affects each of them.
Carson Palmer, QB: He lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh before last season and he was already coming back from an elbow injury that had doubters lining up. Palmer played in all 16 regular season games for the fourth time in five seasons, but his numbers were way down. Most of that can be blamed on the team’s shift to a ball-control offense, built on the back of RB Cedric Benson.
You have to assume Cincinnati will be going back to more of a passing game this season, considering they brought in Owens and Antonio Bryant, and the fact they finally have healthy tight ends – including first-round pick Jermaine Gresham.
The Bengals threw the ball an average of 29.8 times per game, which ranked them just 27th in the NFL behind passing juggernauts like Oakland (30.3) and Tampa Bay (32.8). In Palmer’s last healthy season (2007), the Bengals threw it about six more times per game (eighth in the NFL). But they also had Houshmandzadeh on the payroll.
If they jack up the passing game, will those six extra passes for Palmer make that big of a difference?
Absolutely.
Just by going strictly off the numbers, those six extra passes will translate to about four more completions a game. He averaged about 11 yards per completion in ’07, so that
becomes about 44 more passing yards per game. But that’s 11 yards per completion with Houshmandzadeh as one of his receivers. Over the past two seasons, Housh has certainly outperformed Owens, but in 171 total receptions, he had just 21 catches over 20 yards – and only two catches over 40 yards. Owens, on the other hand, with just 124 catches over the past two seasons, had 24 catches over 20 yards and 11 receptions over 40 yards.
Owens has play-making ability – even at an advanced stage in his career – that the possession-conscious Houshmandzadeh never had. T.O. has more playmaking ability than Chad Ochocinco, too. That will be the difference for Palmer’s numbers.
Before this news, I had projected Palmer to throw for 3,580 yards and 22 TDs. The addition of T.O. – and the transition to more of an air attack -- should give Palmer a stat-line closer to 3,860 yards and 26 TDs. With those projections, Palmer shoots up our rankings, past QBs like Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb and Matt Ryan, up to the 10th spot among QBs.
Cedric Benson, RB: The small shift away from the running game means fewer carries for Benson – not to mention the small possibility of a league suspension for an offseason barroom fight. The former Longhorns RB was one of a small group of running backs to receive at least 60 percent of his team’s carries. Bernard Scott should see more touches in 2010, as should Brian Leonard. Benson’s numbers could still reach 1,200 rushing yards, which is what he totaled in 2009 in just 13 games. And six or seven touchdowns isn’t out of line either. Those projections drop him back a couple spots in our rankings, down to 12th at his position, behind Ryan Grant and Shonn Greene.
Chad Ochocinco, WR: Is there room enough for both egos? Can Ochocinco, 32, and Ocho-uno, 37, really co-exist? Both have been known to give their quarterbacks plenty of problems when they feel they aren’t getting the ball enough. But it also seems that both players have softened/matured over the past year or so. No, seriously. But if someone’s going to grumble and draw the ire of coaches/players/fans, it’s going to be T.O., considering he’s the new guy. That means that Ochocinco is coming into the year with a lot of the load taken off his shoulders. Even when Houshmandzadeh was here, Ochocinco was still looked to as the main man. He already said he’ll be Robin to T.O.’s Batman. Now, he can look like the real superhero as he outperforms him (as he should, considering he’s four years younger than Owens and he has been with this same team his entire career). There likely won’t be much of a difference in Ochocinco’s numbers this season compared to last. We like him for 72 catches, 1,075 and seven TDs.
Terrell Owens, WR: T.O. puts behind him a Bills offense that ranked just 30th in the NFL last season. Quarterbacks Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick did what they could, but the veteran receiver had no chance to duplicate previous season’s numbers. Just having Palmer throwing to him makes a huge difference, then throw in the supporting cast of Benson, Ochocinco and Bryant, and now Owens can post a season like he did in Dallas. Here’s an interesting point though – even in the worst season of his career, Owens still caught 69 balls for 1,052 yards and 10 TDs. Those numbers beat out Jeremy Maclin, Santana Moss and Robert Meachem. But most of that was done in the second half, long after fantasy owners had given up on him. Owens getting 1,000 yards this season will be tough, now that he is not considered the No. 1 target for the first time in his career. But 65 catches, 825 yards and seven touchdowns is certainly a reachable goal. My guess is that as long as he gets looks in the end zone, he’ll be happy. That puts him 28th in our WR rankings, just behind Lee Evans and Steve Breaston, and just ahead of Robert Meachem and Derrick Mason.
Antonio Bryant, WR: Obviously, the move to bring in Owens means the Bengals aren’t too optimistic about Bryant’s knee problems. Owens’ presence pushes Bryant to the bench for most of the snaps in Cincinnati, but he’s a reliable receiver with eight years on Owens. Considering the ages of both Ochocinco and Owens, Bryant could easily end up starting a handful of games, so don’t overlook him late in your draft just because he’s their third receiver. With some starts, and several looks even when he isn’t starting, Bryant could catch 40 balls for 580 yards and four touchdowns. He went from being our 40th-ranked wide receiver down to 60th, behind Joshua Cribbs and Devery Henderson.
Regardless of who lines up and when, this Bengals team just got much more dynamic. And ohhhhh, are the TD celebrations going to be fun to watch.
Category: NFL
Tags:
Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ochocinco, Carson Palmer, Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, Ryan Grant, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Brian Leonard, Cedric Benson, Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Matt Ryan, Joshua Cribbs, Steve Breaston, Joe Flacco, Jermaine Gresham, Shonn Greene, Bernard Scott, Jeremy Maclin
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danieledobish (07/28/2010 at 5:12pm ET)
1 Yep, the only people not squeezing themselves with excitement are Ced Benson, his posse and fantasy owners who either have him as a keeper or who had early drafts - lol
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