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2010 Fantasy Racing: Pocono 500 - second run
| By Daniel Dobish | about a month ago | NASCAR | | 0 | Comments | |
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It's time to watch the good ol' boys swapping paint, starting on Feb. 14 in Daytona and ending on Nov. 22 in Homestead, Fla. During the season, we'll be providing our fantasy racer rankings to help you in the FOX Auto Racing Challenge. Each week, you'll select five racers using a $100 salary. Use the figures listed each week below to select a lineup and compete against others in this exciting and challenging FREE game. Or, you can challenge other owners for cash prizes! Join a group -- or create your own -- with entry fees from as low as $1, $5 and $10, up to entry fees as big as $100. Battle it out for the first-place cash prize!
We're back for the second go-around at the 2.5-mile tri-oval at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pa. It really is one of the most unique tracks on the circuit, featuring what is basically a triangle with three corners connected by a pair of long straightaways and one short straightaway. For whatever reason, Denny Hamlin has had very little trouble figuring out the nooks and crannies of this track, while many others have failed.
Hamlin enters Sunday's race with two wins in a row at Pocono and a total of four overall. In fact, in nine career starts at the Pennsylvania track, he has managed six Top 5s and seven Top 10s while posting an amazing 8.6 place finishing spot. He'll go off third in Sunday's Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500.
All eyes will be on Tony Stewart, at least initially. He is trying to follow up a tremendous third-place run back in June with his first victory of the season. He claimed the pole on Friday night with a stellar qualifying effort. Stewart is a two-time winner at Pocono and he has eight Top 5s and 17 Top 10s in 23 career starts here.
Last, but certainly not least, we focus on one other driver who doesn't get the headlines and accolades like the others. Sam Hornish Jr. is a solid flat track driver and he proved so in leading several laps late in June before finally relinquishing the lead and ending up 11th. He has been 11th or better in three straight runs at Pocono, so he is definitely a fantasy sleeper.
Top-tier racers
1. Denny Hamlin ($49): As mentioned above, Hamlin is ridiculously successful at Pocono. While he eats up nearly half of your salary in the FOX Auto Racing Challenge, he does get double points when used as the team captain. He is almost automatic at Pocono, so it's tempting to go with him despite the high price.
2. Jimmie Johnson ($36): Since the last trip into Pocono, Johnson has gotten back on track. J.J. is a two-time winner in Long Pond and he posted his sixth Top 5 and 11th Top 10 in 17 career starts with a fifth-place run back in June. He isn't Mr. Automatic like Hamlin, but he is close. He has averaged a 9.5 place finish in 17 starts at the tri-oval and he saves you quite a bit of salary as opposed to the No. 11.
3. Kevin Harvick ($31): I am starting to care less and less about past history and performances by certain drivers at tracks, as many have exorcised demons at tracks they have traditionally not been very good. That leads me to Harvick, who entered June's Pocono run with an average finish of 15.7 in 18 career runs. He also had just two Top 5 finishes to his credit at the Pennsylvania track before ripping off a fourth-place finish. Remember, he got mixed up with Joey Logano in the final moments of June's race. Harvick, who remains firmly in control of the top spot in the overall Sprint Cup Series standings, is a solid fantasy option in the FOX Auto Racing Challenge. His salary is extremely low for his stature, but it is mostly based on his past results which haven't been very good here.
4. Kyle Busch ($29): If you can get Rowdy at a sub-$30 salary, you should add him to a fantasy squad immediately. He is another driver who sees his fantasy salary nearly bottom out at Pocono because of some past performances which left him shaking his head. However, after just one Top 5 and two Top 10s in 10 career runs prior, Busch ripped off a runner-up finish back in June. He is a definite sleeper, although he looked mostly asleep in qualifying. He'll go off 21st on Sunday.
5. Ryan Newman ($29): It's now or never for Newman, as he is in danger of failing to qualify for the Chase. He has proven to be solid on flats in the past and his only victory this season came at Phoenix, also a flat track. He has won at Pocono before while turning in six Top 5s and seven Top 10s in 17 starts. He has a 13.4 average finish spot in his career and true to form, he ended up 14th here back in June.
| Dobish's Pocono 500 fantasy lineup |
| 1 - Juan Pablo Montoya - $26 *** |
| 2 - Ryan Newman - $29 |
| 3 - Sam Hornish Jr. - $22 |
| 4 - David Reutimann - $21 |
| 5 - Landon Cassill - $1 |
| Total - $99 ($1 remaining) *** - CAPTAIN for double points |
Big-money buyer beware
Clint Bowyer ($27): Bowyer hasn't been awful in nine career starts at Pocono, but he hasn't been great either. He turned in an impressive ninth place finish back in June, re-kindling his then flickering hopes of getting into the Chase. He has one Top 5 and five Top 10s in his career at the Pennsylvania track, but he goes off 40th on Friday after an awful qualifying effort. It will be next to impossible for Bowyer to threaten at any point on Sunday after starting from so far back in the field.
Yellow flag! Other big names to avoid
Jeff Burton ($25): Burton continues to sort of spin his wheels lately, not tumbling down the standings, but not really making any bold moves. He turned in a seventh-place run last time out at Pocono, but he still has no wins in 33 career runs here. In addition, Burton has managed just seven Top 5s and 16 Top 10s. He can be decent, but he isn't worth a quarter of your salary with much better options available.
Joey Logano ($21): Logano checks in at $21 this week, which was his exact salary last time we raced here in June. You might not remember much about the first Pocono run, but you likely remember Logano's comment about Kevin Harvick's wife wearing the fire suit in the family, etc. He got mixed up with Harvick late and still recovered to get back to 13th place. It was his best finish in three-career starts at Pocono, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he might try to overdrive on Sunday and that might cost him dearly.
Martin Truex Jr. ($22): I like MTJ on flats normally. He managed to rank 17th in seven stops in '09, but there are two reasons not to like him this Sunday. He finished 25th here back in June and he'll go off 28th on Sunday after a very poor qualifying effort on Friday.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($20): Pocono is a track which hasn't treated Earnhardt particularly well in his previous 21 runs. He ended up 19th back in June, which is about par for the course for Little E at Long Pond. In 21 races at Pocono, he has never won, has just five Top 5s and he has managed a total of six Top 10s.
Top wingmen
1. Mark Martin ($31): Martin has had a long and successful career at Pocono. He has done pretty much everything except for win at the Pennsylvania track. In 47 career starts, he has no checkered flags, but 19 Top 5s and an amazing 32 Top 10 finishes. He was caught up in the muck in June and ended up a distant 29th.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya ($26): Montoya has to be seething after another serving of disappointment pie at Indianapolis Motor Speedway last week. Rather than stew about the poor result, he bounced back and is starting on the front row at Pocono this weekend. He was eighth here in June, his third Top 10 in seven starts at the Pennsylvania track.
3. Sam Hornish Jr. ($22): Hornish turned in a sensational effort at Pocono last time out, leading a career-high 17 laps before tumbling down the leaderboard late. He still ended up a respectable 11th, his third straight finish at Pocono of 11th or better. Normally, he is a forgotten driver, but he takes centerstage on the season's seven flat starts.
4. David Reutimann ($21): Reutimann pushed his way into the fantasy conversation with a convincing win at Chicagoland three weeks ago. He didn't do a ton to impress at IMS last Sunday, but he is still on an upward swing. Couple that with the fact he ranked seventh among all drivers in seven flat course starts in '09 and we're talking serious sleeper for this Sunday.
5. Jamie McMurray ($18): McMurray snagged the headlines last weekend with a rousing win at Indianapolis. He still sees his salary tumble all the way down to $18 this weekend, mainly a result of his 23rd place rank on flats in '09 and his horrendous 36th place finish at Pocono back in June. Still, he is on a roll lately and the course type doesn't seem to make a difference anymore.
Red flag! Racers to avoid at all costs
Greg Biffle ($26): Biffle has been average at best in 15 career runs at Pocono, posting just one Top 5 and a pair of Top 10s. He was mixed up in the huge pile-up back in June and managed a 28th place finish then. For what you get in return, Biffle is certainly not worth spending the money.
Matt Kenseth ($25): Kenseth would cost you a quarter of your salary, but he is simply not worth it. He has never won at Pocono, while posting just three Top 5s and eight Top 10s in 21 career starts at the triangle. He matched his number back in June, ending up a mediocre 17th.
Carl Edwards ($32): This might be one I look back on and regret, as Edwards has won at Pocono twice before. However, I simply do not trust the Ford FR9 engine right now. While Kasey Kahne has produced a runner-up finish with the new setup, it seems that the Ford has been marginal at best and it hasn't been dependable. We haven't seen a Ford in Victory Lane in a long time, in fact they've won just once in 54 races. With Edwards starting at 25th this weekend, it doesn't look like his luck is going to change any time soon.
David Ragan ($14): Some might debate if Ragan is really fantasy-worthy to begin with, so this might be a no-brainer. He stumbled to a mediocre 26th place finish in June at Pocono and he currently sits 24th in the overall Sprint Cup Series standings. He goes off 18th on Sunday.
Marcos Ambrose ($18): Ambrose was tremendous in '09, but this season has been struggle after struggle. One of those struggles came back in June when he ended up 30th after a big wreck after 203 laps. He managed to qualify 19th for Sunday's race.
Bargain basement
1. Landon Cassill ($1): Cassill is a deep, deep sleeper heading into his first-career run at Pocono. Perhaps the lack of experience is seen as a bad thing, but not having had bad runs in the past and being intimidated by the triangle might work to his advantage too.
2. P.J. Jones ($1): Jones takes over the reins of the No. 7 car for Robby Gordon, who has another commitment. Jones goes off in the 42nd position, so not a ton is expected, but he is a solid No. 5 fantasy driver when saving salary for other spots.
3. J.J. Yeley ($6): Yeley was the quickest of the go-or-go home drivers, getting all the way up to the 30th spot in the starting order. He managed just a 37th place finish here in June, so temper your expectations. Still, gathering 65-75 fantasy points would be suitable for your No. 5 and that's exactly where Yeley is likely to finish.
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