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M. Jones-Drew - RB 
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2010 FB Players to draft and trade
| By David Gonos | about 2 months ago | NFL | | 2 | Comments | |
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When assessing an NFL schedule, one of the things that jump out at you are the short sprints (four or five games) that break up a season into thirds or fourths. There could be a group of really easy games, or really tough games, but rarely is it perfectly balanced.
In fantasy football, we want to take advantage of those short schedule segments. One of the ways to do that is to target some players that could break out with big starts to the season, only to have a daunting middle-of-the-year schedule awaiting them in Week 6.
Listed below are the biggest strength-of-schedule differentials from Weeks 1-5 to Weeks 6-10. The number listed next to each player is the difficulty ranking of their second set of games (Weeks 6-10) minus the difficulty ranking of their first set of games.
In other words, if a team faced the easiest defenses to throw against in the NFL in Weeks 5-10, they were ranked first. But in Weeks 6-10, they faced the 20th easiest set of defenses to throw against, then their differential was (+19). That means you’ll expect a pretty big falloff after their first five weeks of production, so maybe you should trade them after Week 5.
Quarterbacks
1. Matthew Stafford, DET (+30)
Don’t get too excited over this ranking. Stafford will have to face the Bears, Eagles, Vikings, Packers and Rams. He’ll be passing a lot because in four of those games, the Lions will be down by 20 points. But still too many INT chances.
2. Sam Bradford, STL (+24)
We list the rookie as the starter, even though it might take a few weeks. So since a backup should start a few games, they hold zero trade value, so let’s move on.
3. Jay Cutler, CHI (+21)
Now we’re talking! Cutler led the Milky Way last season with 26 interceptions. But in the first five weeks of the season, he’s going to face Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, N.Y. Giants and Carolina. The Lions, Giants and Packers all allowed at least 29 passing touchdowns last season – top four in the league. Then, between Weeks 6-10, Cutler will have to face Seattle, Washington (just 19 pass TDs allowed), Buffalo (second-most INTs in ’09) and Minnesota (along with a bye week). That makes him a nice trade candidate after Week 5.
4. Kyle Orton, DEN (+21)
Cutler’s replacement also favors a weak early schedule (at JAC, SEA, IND, at TEN, at BAL w/o Ed Reed), but a tough middle schedule (NYJ, OAK, at SF, bye, KC). But again, with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings, Orton won’t have much trade value.
5. Alex Smith, SF (+18)
I actually like this one even better than Cutler. The Niners’ first five games (at SEA, NO, at KC, at ATL and PHI) is a mix of bad secondaries (SEA, PHI and KC) along with games against high-scoring offenses that will run the scores up (ATL and NO). Smith should come out of the gate strong, but then in Weeks 6-10, he’ll see the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, Rams and a bye week. Those defenses have more trouble against the run, so the Niners won’t have to pass often. Dangle this sleeper pick after Week 5.
Running backs
1. Ryan Grant, GB (+27)
The Packers face the Eagles, Bills, Bears, Lions and Redskins through September. The Bills, Bears and Lions allowed an average of 136 rushing yards per game. But after, Grant will be going up against the Dolphins, Vikings, Jets, Cowboys and a bye. Minnesota, Dallas and N.Y. all ranked in the top eight in rushing defense last season. They allowed an average of 90 rushing yards per game.
2. Joseph Addai, IND (+15)
If Donald Brown is going to steal a starting gig away from Addai, it’ll have to be in the second third of the season.
3. Adrian Peterson, MIN (+15)
Ummm, don’t trade Peterson unless you get a six-bedroom house in return.
4. Beanie Wells, ARI (+15)
This one is tricky, since the Cardinals are expected to lean on the running game a little more no matter what the schedule looks like.
5. Ryan Mathews, SD (+12)
The highest drafted rookie in fantasy should have a schedule conducive to a nice start out of the gate. They start the season against the Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cardinals and Raiders – all five teams ranked below the league average in rushing yards allowed.
Wide receivers
1. Eddie Royal, DEN (+28)
The three best trade candidates to come out of this article are Alex Smith, Ryan Grant and Royal. Only Stafford has a better first 5/second 5 differential than Royal’s 28. His rookie counterpart will be blossoming in the middle of the season, possibly taking away some touches.
2. Michael Crabtree, SF (+25)
This is an interesting one, only because he’s such a sweet breakout pick for 2010 in his sophomore season. I would lean more toward holding onto him, expecting him to step up to the competition in the middle of the schedule.
3. Donnie Avery, STL (+24)
Doubtful you’ll get much for a Rams receiver after just five weeks.
4. Reggie Wayne, IND (+18)
If you’re trading Wayne, your No. 1 RB probably broke his leg in Week 3.
5. Calvin Johnson, DET (+17)
See Reggie Wayne.
We’ll look at the opposite effect – players that could struggle to start the season because of tough schedules, only to have easy games on the horizon – next.
Category: NFL
Tags:
Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Adrian Peterson, Brady Quinn, Kyle Orton, Calvin Johnson, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Ed Reed, Eddie Royal, Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, Sam Bradford, Beanie Wells, Matthew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown
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alscherer (07/24/2010 at 2:07pm ET)
1 Hi. Very interesting article. I like the perspective. Minor note: You have a very good point but I think your example doesn't quite match your scoring system definition. You said, "...if a team faced the easiest defenses to throw against in the NFL in Weeks 5-10, they were ranked first. But in Weeks 6-10, they faced the 20th toughest set of defenses to throw against, then their differential was (+19)." Actually, the 20th TOUGHEST set is 10th easiest. So they've gone from 1st easiest to 10th easiest - which makes them +9 (not +19). I believe your example should have shown them going from 1st easiest to 20th easiest (10th toughest) to get to +19.
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twitter_5971152 (07/24/2010 at 3:05pm ET)
2 @alscherer - Haaaa, excellent point! I was tongue-tied writing that sentence to begin with. I've already re-worded, thanks again.
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